The recent hard seltzer boom has given hope that other "hard" beverages may also take off very soon. One of my favorite drinks is kombucha, and I recently tried some hard kombucha. Why? I was at a housewarming party (in the Bay Area), and the host had prepared a selection of drinks that included beers, White Claws, hard kombuchas, and EANABs. My kombucha was tasty and I could barely distinguish the alcohol, which led me to reflect on the drivers of my choice of beverage. Did I choose the hard kombucha because I simply favor the taste of kombucha or because it is "healthier" than the other options (or maybe I believed that it was healthier)? The more insightful question, rather, is would I have preferred a regular kombucha?
Asking this question reveals that succeeding in this alternative alcohol market is not so easy. Hard seltzer had the advantage of being almost completely new (no one I know who likes White Claw used to just drink seltzer), whereas hard kombucha, hard tea, and even hard water have a clear "regular" version that we all enjoy. The value-add of alcohol that is barely distinguishable seems much lower. It is also important to note that those regular drinks are known for their health benefits and there is not yet a clear answer as to whether an alcoholic version would maintain the health benefits.
Therefore, my personal outlook for hard kombucha is mixed. Despite its initial success, I believe it will have a difficult time finding hard seltzer-like growth on its own, but can potentially be packaged in forms such as kombucha cocktails and play in the field of pre-made, single-serve cocktails.
Sources:
https://www.theiwsr.com/news-and-comment-radius-trend-hard-kombucha/
https://miruspromotions.com/industry-trends-hard-kombucha/
https://www.marketwatch.com/press-release/hard-kombucha-market-2020-2026-pointing-to-capture-largest-market-growth-and-share-with-developed-economies---industry-research-co-2020-01-24
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