The "Sideways" Effect

Can one line in a movie shift customer preferences enough to dramatically alter the demand for certain consumer products?

It certainly can. Since today's WineInStyle case alludes to it, I wanted to shine light on "the Sideways Effect" - the impact that a 2005 film had on the shifts in demand of Pinot and Merlot in the US. Yes, this has been studied. Two scenes in a single movie were resonsible for elevating the fate of Pinot and destroying Merlot.

Some background: Wine-obsessed protagonist Miles Raymond (played by Paul Giamatti) is a divorced, middle-aged, and potentially alcoholic teacher and unsuccessful writer. The movie follows he and a friend's escapades through Santa Ynez wine country. It won the 2005 Academy Award for Best Adapted Screenplay (1).

On Pinot:

Miles has a beautiful monologue detailing his obsession with the delicacies of Pinot Noir:

"Thin-skinned. Temperamental. In need of constant care and attention."

Only the finest producers can make good Pinot, Raymond argues. Just beautiful prose, no? Watch here:

On Merlot:

Merlot, on the other hand, gets a bad rap from Raymond. A favorite of his ex-wife's, Merlot is the enemy. Miles screams at his friend arguably the most famous wine-related quote in Hollywood:

"No, if anyone orders merlot, I'm leaving. I am NOT drinking any f****** merlot!"

Duckhorn cites this as the single worst impact to its flagship Merlot performance. A bit of a running company joke (most of the impact to Merlot was at lower price points), but still funny.

The Impact:

In a 2009 case study, a Sonoma State University professor of economics, measured a ~2 percent decline in Merlot sales between January 2005 (months after the film's release in October 2004) through 2008. Over the same time period, sales of pinot noir rose by ~16%, elevating it to the second-most planted varietal in Sonoma County today (2). The study analyzed many variables, looking at prices, case volumes, etc. and even controlling for promotions as a result of the film (3).

More details on the full findings from Prof. Cuellar can be found here.

A 2017 NPR article goes further on the staying power of Pinot as a result of this line: "A dozen years later, pinot noir has become a mainstay of the California wine industry, and winemakers credit the film with bringing deserved attention to the varietal, calling it 'The Sideways Effect'" (2).

I don't know that I'd call Paul Giamatti an SJC-level wine-influencer, but his words sure did have a more momentous impact on the California wine industry than any other celebrity I've come across.